Governor's Race Will Make For a Fractured Minnesota House

Rep. Tom Emmer was the latest Republican to throw his hat in the ring today for the 2010 Minnesota Governor's race. Rep. Marty Seifert resigned his minority leadership last month and is anticipated to announce his run soon. Rep Paul Kohls is also in and there is speculation about Rep Laura Brod, as well. When Governor Tim Pawlenty announced he would not seek a second term it was a huge game changer for the Republicans in the Minnesota State House. Even before the 2009 session ended, there were Democrats who had announced their run and lots of speculation of who would announce after the session. But, now the Republicans need to decide on who the next leader of their party will be in Minnesota. The House and Senate in Minnesota are both run by Democrat majorities. The Senate has a veto proof majority. However, the House Republicans held together and defeated an override on the Governor's veto of the tax bill and cuts to health care for low-income childless adults. The Republican's numbers are such that they cannot afford to lose even one or two caucus votes on these key issues. With the impending Governor's race, the 2010 session in the House may be alot more fractious for the Republicans. They will have to elect a new Minority Leader. The campaigners will also have to decide if they are going to break from the pack to differentiate themselves. There will be alot more temptation to play politics with votes. This will play right into the hand of the Democrats. I am concerned that with some of the unallotments coming in the 2010 budget cycle, the Democrats in the legislature will try and pass a law forbidding unallotment at all or they will try to negotiate a better mix of cuts, accounting shifts and tax increases (again). And, they might have the numbers to do it this time. The Republican minority in the House is the only thing standing between the Democrats and a tax increase.